Petrotahlil - Global polyethylene demand looks set to increase by enough to avoid the long-forecast supply-driven downcycle.
This would be because of the surge in demand resulting from the pandemic.
Scenarios I or 2 of the following three scenarios seem the most likely:
Scenario 1 would see global demand growth averaging 5% in 2021- 2025. Cumulative demand would reach 658m tonnes.
Under Scenario 2, demand growth would be at a 4% annual average with cumulative demand at 622m tonnes – 36m tonnes lower than Scenario 1.
Scenario 3 sees average annual growth at 2% and cumulative demand at 569m tonnes, which would be 89m tonnes lower than Scenario 1.
There are also appears to be no threat from a big rise in Chinese self-sufficiency right out until 2031.
But how do we meet this growth sustainably? This is an altogether different question that the industry must answer.
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Source : ICIS